Loss of US aid for Ukraine?
My question to Grok / X was:
If the US cuts off all aid to Ukraine today, how long could Ukraine defend itself against Russia?
Key points
Research suggests that Ukraine could defend itself for about a year without US aid, relying on support from other countries and rely on its own resources, but this is uncertain and depends on many factors.
The US provides about 50 percent of Ukraine's military aid, including critical items such as artillery shells and air defense systems, making stopping aid a major challenge.
Other countries, especially European countries such as Germany and Britain, have increased their aid, but this may not fully offset the loss of US support.
Ukrainian military production is growing but is likely insufficient to sustain defense in the long term without external assistance, making the situation even more complex makes.
Background and Analysis
The question of how long Ukraine can defend itself against Russia without US assistance is complex, given the ongoing war and the significant role played by US support. Below, we break down the key factors and provide a detailed analysis based on the available data.
US Aid to Ukraine
The US has been a major donor to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022. Through early 2025, the US has provided approximately $65.9 billion in military assistance since the start of the large-scale invasion, for a total of $69.2 billion since 2014 (US Security Cooperation with Ukraine). These include critical assets such as 155mm artillery shells, air defense systems such as Patriot missiles, and training support. Research suggests that the US provides about 50% of the total military aid to Ukraine, which is estimated to reach $118 billion by March 2024 from all Western countries (List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War).
Impact of stopping aid
If the US stops all aid, Ukraine would lose a significant part of its military capabilities, especially in artillery and air defense, which are essential for maintaining the front lines. Reports indicate that without U.S. assistance, Ukraine's military capabilities would gradually decline, which could lead to collapse within 6 to 12 months, depending on consumption and inventory levels (The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline, Then Collapse). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stressed that Ukraine has "no chance of winning" without US support, highlighting the severity of the potential impact (How America's Aid to Ukraine Actually Works).
Other Sources of Aid
Other countries, particularly European nations, have stepped up their support. Through December 2024, European countries have provided a total of €132 billion in aid, with Germany (€17.7 billion) and the United Kingdom (€9.1 billion) leading the way (Ukraine: Top 10 Military Aid Donors). However, research suggests that while Europe has overtaken the US in overall aid, it may not be able to fully replace the US role, particularly for certain high-demand items such as artillery shells (These countries have pledged the most aid to Ukraine). The Kiel Institute for the World Economy notes that European aid has tended to be financial and humanitarian, with a shift towards arms procurement, but gaps remain (Ukraine Support Tracker).
Ukraine's own capabilities
Ukraine has a historic military-industrial base inherited from the Soviet Union and is expanding its arms production. In 2025, Ukraine will produce a higher volume of weapons thanor invasion, including tanks and drones, but this is still not enough to meet wartime needs without external assistance (The Transformation of Ukraine's Defense Industry Amid the War with Russia). Reportedly, Ukraine's defense budget in 2023 was around $48 billion, but this depends heavily on foreign aid to cover equipment and ammunition, not just salaries and domestic production (Ukraine's Military Budget 2023).
Estimated Timeline
To estimate how long Ukraine can defend itself without US assistance, consumption rates and stockpiles must be taken into account. During its counteroffensive in 2023, Ukraine consumed around 6,000 artillery shells per day, and the US was one of the main suppliers. Without US aid and relying on help from other countries (about $1.65 billion per month) and its own production, Ukraine could maintain its defences for about 6-12 months before critical shortages lead to a collapse. A report by the Royal United Services Institute suggests that Ukraine could go without additional Western aid for about a year, but this is uncertain and depends on Russia's actions and European responses (Russian military objectives and capabilities in Ukraine until 2024). Another source from December 2024 suggests that Ukraine has the means to fight in the first half of 2025, suggesting that it will take at least 9 months from March 2025 (How long Ukraine can wage war without US help, the Ukrainian ministry answers). Given the complexity, it seems likely that Ukraine could defend itself for about 1 year, but this is a rough estimate with considerable uncertainty.
In summary, while Ukraine has other sources of aid and is expanding its own production, the loss of U.S. support would likely lead to a gradual decline in its defense capabilities, with research suggesting it could last about a year before facing significant challenges. This estimate may change based on geopolitical developments and Russian military strategy.
Key Quotes
U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine
The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine: Gradual Decline Then Collapse
List of Military Aid to Ukraine During the Russo-Ukrainian War
Ukraine: The 10 biggest providers of military aid
These countries have committed the most aid to Ukraine.
The transformation of the Ukrainian Defense industry amid war with Russia
Ukrainian military budget 2023
Russian military objectives and capabilities in Ukraine through 2024
How long Ukraine can do without US helpe can wage war, the Ukrainian ministry responds
How America's aid to Ukraine actually works